TheInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) in its annual World Economic Outlook haslowered India's economic growth projection to 5.9 per cent for the currentfiscal 2023-24 (FY24) from 6.1 per cent predicted earlier. It also lowered theforecast for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) to 6.3 per cent from the6.8 per cent it had predicted in January this year. The growth rate of 5.9 percent in the 2023-24 fiscal compares to an estimated 6.8 per cent in theprevious year. Despite a significant drop in growth rate projections, it saidIndia continues to be the fastest-growing economy in the world.
On the inflation front, the IMF projected India’s retail inflation to ease to 4.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.7 per cent in FY23, and the current account deficit to come down to 2.2 per cent of GDP from an estimated 2.6 per cent a year ago. In purchasing power parity terms, India’s growth in per capita output is set to decelerate to 4.9 per cent in FY24 from 5.8 per cent in FY23.
The agency further said China's growth rate is projected to be 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 4.5 per cent in 2024 against its growth rate of three per cent in 2022. On the surface, the global economy appears to be poised for a gradual recovery from the powerful blows of the pandemic and Russia's unprovoked war on Ukraine. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said China is rebounding strongly following the reopening of its economy. Supply-chain disruptions are unwinding, while the dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding. Simultaneously, the massive and synchronous tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back toward its targets.
He said ‘In our latest forecast, global growth will bottom out at 2.8 per cent this year before rising modestly to 3.0 per cent in 2024. Global inflation will decrease, although more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 7.0 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024’. According to him, this year's economic slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the euro area and the United Kingdom, where growth is expected to fall to 0.8 per cent and -0.3 per cent this year before rebounding to 1.4 and 1 per cent, respectively.