Gold trading range for the day is 59996-60854 – Kedia Advisory

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 60505 as the dollar came off last session's peak, while traders hunkered down for Wednesday's U.S. inflation data for cues on future interest rate hikes. The prospect of the Fed raising its benchmark rate only once more by 25 basis points is a useful starting point but its policy path will depend on incoming data, said New York Fed President John Williams. China further increased the size of its gold reserves in March. According to reports from the People’s Bank of China, the size of the national Chinese gold reserve increased by 18 tons in March, reaching 2,068 tons in total. The purchase marks the continuation of a five-month buying spree that the country executed starting in November last year. After no reports of gold purchased since 2019, the country has been consistently buying gold, having purchased 102 tons in the aforementioned five-month period. The demand for gold has been strong in 2023, according to the World Gold Council, which believes that central banks will keep hoarding gold this year. India’s gold imports, which have a bearing on the current account deficit, fell about 30 per cent to USD 31.8 billion during April-February 2023 due to high customs duty and global economic uncertainties. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.59% to settle at 18534 while prices are up 442 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60251 and below same could see a test of 59996 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60680, a move above could see prices testing 60854.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59996-60854.
* Gold gains as the dollar came off last session's peak
* China purchased 18 tons of gold in March
* Gold Imports Dip 30% to 431.8 Billion in April-February 2023

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 75040 as the dollar depreciated as investors turned their attention to a critical US inflation reading due on Wednesday for clues on monetary policy. The IMF revised its global growth forecasts lower to 2.8% from 2.9% for 2023 and to 3% from 3.1% for 2024, citing tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions and the ongoing war in Ukraine. On the price front, global inflation is seen decreasing, although more slowly than initially anticipated, to 7% this year. Data indicated a strong pace of U.S. job hiring, raising the chances that the Fed will increase rates in May to around 72%. Wednesday's U.S. inflation report could yield signs on how long the Fed may continue its campaign against rising prices. Traders will also look for cues from a host of Fed speakers. Central banks should not halt their fight against inflation because of financial stability risks, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 71.7 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a quarter point next month. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.36% to settle at 15179 while prices are up 717 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74652 and below same could see a test of 74265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75293, a move above could see prices testing 75547.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74265-75547.
* Silver gains as investors turned attention to a critical US inflation reading
* Market sees 72% chance of Fed rate hike in May
* India’s silver imports, rose by 66 per cent to USD 5.3 billion during April-February 2023.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 6682 amid hopes of Chinese stimulus and expectations that crude oil inventories in the U.S will fall again. China's consumer inflation hit an 18-month low in March and producer price deflation deepened further, creating room for the country's central bank to potentially ease its monetary policy. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia surprised the market last week with further cuts to production targets from May. U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since November 1983, Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude stocks in the SPR fell to 371.2 million barrels in the week to March 31, the data showed. U.S. field production of crude oil rose in January to 12.46 million barrels per day, the highest since March 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. product supplied of crude and petroleum products – a proxy for demand – rose to 19.54 million bpd, highest since November 2022, EIA data showed. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 4, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 60,399 contracts to 165,458 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 43.3% to settle at 9094 while prices are up 114 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6576 and below same could see a test of 6469 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6739, a move above could see prices testing 6795.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6469-6795.
* Crude oil gains amid hopes of Chinese stimulus.
* US crude stocks in SPR fall to lowest since Nov 1983 – EIA
* US crude output rose in January to highest since March 2020 – EIA

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.16% at 179.3 pressured by higher supply and a milder weather outlook. The data pointed to an exceptionally light demand in the next seven days and in April 21-24, according to NatGasWeather. Natural gas prices hovered close to September 2020 lows amid milder temperatures and weaker heating demand. Last week, total U.S. natural gas consumption fell by 7.1% compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sectors declined by 17.8%, in the power generation sector by 0.4%, and in the industrial sector by 2.7% (0.6 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased by 0.5%, and natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities averaged 13.9 Bcf/d or 0.9 Bcf/d higher than last week. Meanwhile, supply was little changed. U.S. energy firms last week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 98.7 bcfd in March. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.53% to settle at 41614 while prices are down -2.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 175.1 and below same could see a test of 171 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184.4, a move above could see prices testing 189.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 171-189.6.
* Natural gas dropped pressured by higher supply and a milder weather outlook.
* The data pointed to an exceptionally light demand in the next seven days and in April 21-24
* U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a second week in a row.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 775.05 as the copper supply market is still in significant shortage, and global physical inventories have fallen to the lowest level in 14 years. The combination of tight supply and strong demand related to long-term energy transition will drive copper prices upward. Copper output in Chile is rebounding rapidly after falling to a six-year low this year due to water constraints and a series of operational setbacks and delays to key projects. Given that Chilean copper accounts for a quarter of the world's copper mining, this could provide a major relief from tight inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which were at near 18-year lows. Data showed that China' s copper cathode output stood at 951,400 mt in March, up 43,600 mt or 4.8% from the previous month and 12.1% from the same period in 2022. The actual output was 1,900 mt higher than the expected 949,500 mt. The output totalled 2.71 million mt in January-March, an increase of 210,200 mt or 8.4% year on year. Despite the maintenance of three smelters, the actual output in March did not fall as these smelters have restocked sufficient raw materials. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5% to settle at 3608 while prices are up 7.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 769.7 and below same could see a test of 764.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 778.8, a move above could see prices testing 782.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 764.2-782.4.
* Copper gains as the copper supply market is still in significant shortage
* Global physical inventories have fallen to the lowest level in 14 years.
* Copper output in Chile is rebounding rapidly after falling to a six-year low this year

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.71% at 246.45 as China’s refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March as expected. The alloy output registered 82,610 mt, up 16,900 mt on the month. The output totalled 1.57 million mt from January to March, up 6.62% year-on-year. The production cuts in Yunnan caused by power rationing contributed to most of the decline in output. General downward sentiment and continued lack of momentum out of China is bringing metals down to their fundamental levels, erasing some of the risk-on sentiment that we saw take place last week. Weak U.S. manufacturing activity, which slumped to the lowest level in nearly three-years in March, weighed on prices. Toho Zinc Co Ltd, plans to produce 38,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2023/24 financial year, down 1.5% from a year earlier. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.12% to settle at 3664 while prices are down -1.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 244.5 and below same could see a test of 242.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 249, a move above could see prices testing 251.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 242.6-251.6.
* Zinc prices dropped as China’s refined zinc output increased 11.03% MoM in March
* Toho Zinc Co Ltd, plans to produce 38,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2023/24 financial year, down 1.5% from a year earlier.
* The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.5% at 204.1 as data shows that China's aluminium output was 3.41 million mt in March (31 days), a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In March, the daily aluminium output declined 349 mt to 110,000 mt as enterprises in Yunnan still reduced the production and the output increase contributed by the resumption of enterprises in Guizhou and Sichuan was very limited. Aluminium output totalled 9.92 million mt from January to March, up 4.8% year on year. According to statistics, the proportion of domestic aluminium liquid increased 8.3 percentage points month-on-month and 8 percentage points year-on-year to around 71% in March. China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand and adding to uncertainty about a post-COVID recovery, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March. Social inventory of aluminium ingots continued to drop. With little disruption to supply and demand, overseas crude oil production cuts may provide upward momentum to aluminium prices some in the short term. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.04 million mt as of April 6, down 50,000 mt from a week ago and 28,000 mt from this Monday April 3. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.77% to settle at 3294 while prices are down -3.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203 and below same could see a test of 201.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206, a move above could see prices testing 207.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.8-207.8.
* Aluminum dropped as China's aluminium output rose 2.9% yoy
* In March, the output of domestic aluminium billet and aluminium alloy increased significantly.
* China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 980.2 on short covering after prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -12.9 Rupees to end at 1155.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.13% to settle at 610 while prices are up 2.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 976.6 and below same could see a test of 973 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 983.3, a move above could see prices testing 986.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 973-986.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -12.9 Rupees to end at 1155.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
*Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 6816 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6821.25 Rupees dropped -50.4 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 21.13% to settle at 15050 while prices are down -60 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6730 and below same could see a test of 6646 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6892, a move above could see prices testing 6970.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6646-6970.
* Turmeric dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6821.25 Rupees dropped -50.4 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 40120 as crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 32.45 Rupees to end at 41312.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.67% to settle at 7458 while prices are up 355 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 39450 and below same could see a test of 38775 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 41200, a move above could see prices testing 42275.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 38775-42275.
* Jeera prices reached an all-time high of 41600 on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 32.45 Rupees to end at 41312.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

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